Friday, October 20, 2006

Week Seven Picks

Before we get started, a little apology. Pick Em was quite furious that I misposted his record. I forget what I said it was earlier, but it was off by a win. So: my apologies, Mr. 'Em.

Here's the correct records heading into Week Seven. I think:

Kilcs............. 13-11-3
Point23........ 12-12-3
Zero.............. 11-13-3
Pick 'Em....... 10-14-3

Wow. Inching towards respectability there. Onto the picks...

San Diego (-5.5) at Kansas City
Zero: Zero: San Diego...Suuuupa Chaghas. God, I hate Berman. LT and Phil say Your With Me, Herman.
Kilcs: San Diego. Last week teams I was sold on were 0-2. I don't think it'll be 0-3. Chargers D led by Lights Out will shut down LJ and any time you put a game on Brock Huard (or is it Damon's?) shoulders, that's no good. Rivers is becoming as dangerous as LT, no more 8 in the box.
Pick Em: Kansas City. Chiefs split the series with the Chargers last season, but only allowed 7 points in the game at Arrowhead. Tomlinson only rushed for 118 yards in those two games, and didn't find the end zone. When LT struggles, the Chargers struggle. Give me the points!!!
Point23: San Diego. Larry Johnson keeps up his as-predicted bust as a fantasy running back. And I hope Marty leaved LT in when the Bolts are up 21 again and he gets hurt, just because Marty is an idiot for doing that last week. (Jus' playin', LT - we love your work.)

Jacksonville (-10) at Houston
Zero: This is a hard game. Jacksonville is coming off the bye week. Houston's season is basically a roller coaster ride where you have to be a DE from N.C. State to ride. They are the Texans though. Jacksonville, 21-10
Kilcs: Houston. Jacksonville will be without Matt Jones, I'm not sure why that matters, but they will be. I think Houston's due for another close loss. They probably are wishing they woulda taken # 25 though.
Pick Em: Houston. Jaguars will win this game, I expect them to get to jump on the Texans early and then rely on their defense and running game. I still think a TD and FG is too much, so I'll take THE POINTS!!!
Point23: Houston. C'mon now...Jacksonville isn't that good. I know Houston's record sucks, but I think they are semi-respectable. Certainly not 10 point dogs.

New England (-6) at Buffalo
Zero: The first game this year was a fluke. Brady and Co. disassemble the Bills. I say and company because no one other than the two RBs are really all that marektable. Brady and Gabriel. No. Brady and Brown. Sounds too much like Brown and Bubbly. Pats by 2 scores.
Kilcs: Buffalo. New England will win straight up, but Buffalo plays these guys tough all the time. And every week there are games where the better team will definitely win, but they won't definitely cover, this is one of those games for me this week.
Pick Em: New England. Brady struggled mightily in his week 1 matchup against the Bills. Here's to betting that doesn't happen twice.
Point23: New England. Chad Jackson: remember the name. And Laurence Maroney's stiff arm is illegal in 21 states.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Atlanta
Zero: Steelers. Have you seen Big Ted in that FatHead commercial. He really doesn have a fat head, the perfect spokesperson for those FatHead's, which are actually whole bodies, so its kinda false advertising.
Kilcs: Pittsburgh. Nobody runs on the Steelers. Polamalu and the fast linebackers will be able to keep Vick in check running around and I think that Najeh Davenport is a helluva complement to Parker. Steelers roll.
Pick Em: Pittsburgh. This line opened at 1.5, so it looks like a lot of people are taking the Steelers, either that or Tommy's fudgin' lines. Vick proclaims he's a pure passer, and he'll have to be in this game because you do not run against Pittsburgh. I don't believe in Vick's arm.
Point23: Pittsburgh. When a top-notch D takes on an incredibly one dimensional offense, bad things happen for that offense. ATL's WR's can't catch; Vick can't throw: not a recipe for success. Vick is so good at one-hopping 10 yard passes; he should throw ground ball practice for the Braves.

Philadelphia (-6) at Tampa Bay
Zero: Eagles in a tight game. Go Bruce.
Kilcs: Philly. Eagles D puts tons of pressure on QBs. The youngster Gradkowski has handled things well so far in his first two starts, but he can't keep up with the points that McNabb, the MVP leader, will put up.
Pick Em: Tampa Bay. After getting off to a rough start this year, Tampa has been in position to win each of their last 3 games. They lost two of them by a total of 5 points, so expect a close one at Raymond James Stadium. I want the points!
Point23: Philly. In a route, too. Bruce Gradkowski will be seeing Jim Johnson's vaunted blitz package in his dreams for weeks. Random prediction: Lito Sheppard: Two picks, one score.

Detroit at NY Jets (-3.5)

Zero: Still going against Simmons, Go LIONS.
Kilcs: Detroit. I think this makes 3 weeks in a row that I've picked against the Jets and I'm not sure I've won either of the other 2, but I think they're terrible for some reason. I also think that Detroit's gonna end up with a respectable 5-6 wins. I think they win this straight up.
Pick Em: Jets. This should be an entertaining game considering these two teams don't realistically have a shot at the playoffs. Lions have had trouble winning period, but they have really struggled on the road. They're off to another great start this year, posting an 0-3 record on the road this year, gotta take those Jets.
Point23: Jets. I have no confidence in that pick whatsoever. I can't believe they even scheduled this game. This is like the hypothetical who would win between a shark or a lion. Well, maybe a poodle or a prairie dog.

Green Bay at Miami (-5)
Zero: Wow. As long as Greg Jennings and Ronnie Brown have 2 TDs a piece then I dont care who wins, but that really defeats this whole purpose. Green Bay.
Kilcs: Miami. Running game stepped up for Miami last week and Favre's due for a Favre (2003-present) game with about 4 turnovers.
Pick Em: Miami. The Dolphins are really killing me this year. Not only are they my favorite team, but they are 0-5-1 against the spread. If your not gonna win, please cover in a game or two. They're due.
Point23: Green Bay. There's been some insane lines this year: Indy's NCAA-like -19; SF bouncing back from a 30 point only to be a 3 point favorite the next week; now we have an atrocious Miami team as a 5 point favorite. You can have Joey Harrington, thanks. No really. He's all yours.

Carolina at Cincinnati (-3.5)
Zero: This should be a pick 'em game. Panthers defense is too much. Chad Johnson and Hoosh get arrested at half time for doing blow, Omar Gooding-Playmakers style.
Kilcs: Carolina. See last week. See Stevon Smith.
Pick Em: Carolina. Cincy has two starting offensive lineman out this week, and Carolina has one of the best front four's in the league. We'll take the points!
Point23: How the hell is Cincy favored in this game? Carolina wins this thing outright, because Mr. Turnover Machine Carson Palmer fumbled about nine times, eight of which are caused by the completely unblockable and wildly inarticulate Julius Peppers.

Denver (-5.5) at Cleveland
Zero: Melo v. Bron. I got the Cavs.
Kilcs: Cleveland. Denver only beat Oakland by 10 at home. I think Cleveland will play an inspired game, maybe they'll actually score a TD on Denver, something only the Pats have accomplished so far and will keep it close, but lose.
Pick Em: Denver. Denver's allowed one touchdown in five games, and they only give up 7.4 points per game. That's amazing stuff.
Point23: Cleveland. Denever will win by a field goal because they only do enough to win. And I said this before Simmons, you can ask Patty - I told him exactly this in my 11 am Essay Writing class.

Washington at Indianapolis (-9.5)
Zero: Indy. Mark Brunell is old, real old. And the Colts have some guy named Booger right now.
Kilcs: Indy. Their offense is due for a breakout day. And seeing as the Psychos play Peyton this week, well sure enough he'll throw 5 touchdowns in the first half. Although Travis Henry ran all over them a few weeks ago, maybe Portis can lead a ball control attack for the Skins? Na. Psychos badness continues, Manning, Manning and Manning.
Pick Em: Indianapolis. I have too much $ on this game to pick otherwise.
Point23: Indy. Let the Jason Campbell era begin. And while we're here: I don't get head coaches giving up the play calling duties. Isn't that what they are paid to do? I guess - I guess - I can see it if he's a defensive guy and he's calling the defenses...but I don't think Gibbs falls into that category, either. So what the hell is he doing? Why is he getting paid? Certainly not motivation. I jsut don't get it.

Minnesoata at Seattle (-6.5)
Zero: The Sex Boat goes down to the Poison Pill Phifers. Does that even make sense?
Kilcs: Seattle. Branch continues to fit in well with the offense and the performance of the offense without Alexander, makes people wonder why they don't pass like this all the time. Plus Lofa Tatupu. I think he is one of the best players in the league. If this game's on, watch him, he's crazy.
Pick Em: Seattle. See above. Crazy teaser!!!
Point23: Seattle. Holmgren is so pissed about Steve Hutchinson's poison pill contract that he runs up the score. I wish I had Mass Hasslebeck on my fantasy team this week. Wait, no I don't: I have Donovan McNabb.

Arizona (-3) at Oakland
Zero: Cardinals, even after last week's debacle. Are the Raiders who we THOUGHT they are?
Kilcs: Arizona. Matt the LionHearted will lead Zona to a win. Oakland's not gonna win for a long time. I'm not gonna pick them till they win one.
Pick Em: Arizona. Let's see, I have 203 reasons to pick against Denny Green and the Cardinals this week, with number one being they took me out of 203 dollars on Monday night. And I only have 1 reason to pick them, they play theRaidas.
Point23: Arizona. Yep, pretty comfy ridin' shotgon on the Matt Leinart bandwagon. Preeeeeeeetty comfy.

1. NY Giants at Dallas (-3.5)
Zero: Tiki is supposed to retire. Running Man. Dallas.
Kilcs: Dallas. TO gets the double coverage, Terry gets a score or 2 and Julius Jones continues his streak of 100 yard games.
Pick Em: NY Giants. This will be a very close, low scoring football game. 3.5 points is too much to pass up in this type of game. Gimme the points!!!
Point23: Giants. You don't have to double Terrell Owens if you can't pressure Bledsoe (preferably up the middle, but any pressure will do). The Giants have the d-line to do it. Eli plays well on the big stage and a national audience sees Roy Williams exposed as maybe the most wildly overrated player in the NFL.

Let's hand out some awards for these picks, shall we?
The Scoop Jackson Tiny Sentence Award: Zero. Short sentences are his favorite. He loves them. Alot. Loves. Him. Zero. Loves.
The Hip Hip Hooray! Award: Mr. 'Em!!!!!!!!
The Fantasy Football Directly Influences My Picks Award: Kilcs. Somehow knowing that his fantasy team is unluckier than a black cat walking under a ladder and ontop of a broken mirror has helped him get off to the best start of the four of us.
The I Get Off the Hook Award Because I Wrote This: Point23.

Read the Rest After the Jump...