For the rest of the season, there will be four NFL "experts" making their picks in this space. Zero - my college teammate, Pick 'em Page - my high school teammate, and Kilcs, who I've known since high school and he beat me one-on-one once and I didn't talk to him for a week. Anyways, here's their picks with mine. We'll keep a running tally and everything. Whoever has the most wins at the end of the season gets a prize. Which is probably nothing.
Onto the picks...
Buffalo at Chicago (-10.0)
Point23: Chicago. That defense at home won't give up a touchdown, and you won't find anymore more entrenched on the Sexy Rexy Grossman bandwagon than me. Except maybe Zero.
Zero: Da Bears. You thought last week was ugly. Sexy Rexy and the boys run rampant all over Frank Reich’s old team.
Pick 'em Page: Buffalo's defense is going to surprise people in this game. Could be a let down for the Bears, but they still cover 20-9.
Kilcs: Buffalo. Buffalo went into New England where everyone expected them to get hammered and only lost by two. The defense (starting fo the Psychos this week) is too good to get blown out and Chicago has to comeback to earth eventually?
Cleveland at Carolina (-8.0)
Point23: Carolina. I wish I had more hard-hitting analysis than "Cleveland is bad" and "Carolina is good," but that's about it.
Zero: Cleveland. Browns are young, ‘Thers are old. Tha Soulja makes his daddy proud and one of the Panthers RBs is out for the year. Just a guess.
Pick 'em Page: I just can't take a team that was down 21-3 to the Raiders. Panthers 26-10.
Kilcs: Carolina. I think Carolina's really really good. The pass rush will get to Charlie Frye, who is very turnover prone and Steve Smith will continue his domination of the league.
Detroit at Minnesota (-7.0)
Point23: Detroit. I'm telling you: Minnesoata is not good. Not that Detroit is exactly setting the world on fire, but Roy Williams' 40 points are coming sometime this season. If not, I'll go through a drive through naked.
Zero:Vikings. Simmons says always bet against Martz, no wait, I hate him. Lions in a romp.
Pick 'em Page: Detroit will give the Vikings all they can handle..Vikings run game will wear Lions out in the 2nd half. Vikings 27-24.
Kilcs: Detroit. Both teams suck, but Minnesota doesn't suck 7 less points than Detroit sucks. Both teams really suck.
Miami at New England (-10.0)
Point23: New England. Last week, New England annihilated a QB coming off knee surgery who is actually having a good year. Now they play one who is single-handedly derailing his franchise. Gulp.
Zero: The Pats. C’mon Coach Saban, give it to Ronnie 35 times, your not gonna win anyway. Do they play the Raydas at all this year?
Pick 'em Page: Late touchdown will be enough for Miami to cover. Patriots 30-22.
Kilcs: Patriots. Speaking of teams that suck, Miami can't beat Houston at home. Now they go to the Patriots who are still pissed that everyone said Miami would win the division instead of them. Joey Harrington get ready.
St. Louis (-3.0) at Green Bay
Point23: Green Bay. Anyone wanna give Favre a little love around here? Anyone? No? Alright, I will. Favre only does bad against teams that force turnovers. STL does not fall into that category. It says here Favre and Greg Jennings recreate Marino and Duper for a night and "upset" the Rams.
Zero: Rams. Lambo field, Shambo field
Pick 'em Page: Shoot out...Packers secondary won't be able to hold up. Rams 31-24.
Kilcs: St. Louis. The offense started to click last week for the Rams and the defense has played well with the exception of last week. I think the Rams are a playoff team and I think Green Bay wins maybe 3-4 games all year.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-6.5)
Point23: You are out of your mind if you pick against NO in that Dome. As Reggie Bush would say, "That was dumb." By the way: Reggie gets his first TD. Mark it down.
Zero: New Orleans. Bruce who? My newest addition Colston goes off on an old Bucs secondary.
Pick 'em Page: Don't bet against the Saints at home this year. Saints 24-14.
Kilcs: New Orleans. CAN YOU CALL THE PLAY!? Gradkowski is starting for the Bucs who have had no semblence of a running game and will have no semblence of a passing game either. Not a good combination and the Saints will still be pumped about playing in the Dome.
Tennessee at Indianapolis (-19.0)
Point23: Indianapolis. Prove me wrong, Vince Young.
Zero: Indy. Or you can root for Peyton Manning's team.
Pick 'em Page: Vinatieri will outscore the Titans offense. Colts 41-10.
Kilcs: Tennessee. Tennessee lost by 31 last week. I don't ever remember seeing an NFL line this big and the Titans are starting VY and the Colts have Manning, but I just can't feel good about laying 19 points. The Colts will by up by 19 @ some point in the game but garbage points will get the cover for the Tits.
Washington at N.Y. Giants (-5.0)
Point23:Washington. The Giants shouldn't even have a win. I'm openly rooting for Jeremey Shockey to throw Tom Coughlin like the little bean bag things refs throw when someone fumbles.
Zero: ‘Skins. If you think I’m picking against Dolomite Jones and the boys, your out of your bufu mind. (No the ghey.) Vote for Santana.
Pick 'em Page: I hate taking the racists to cover in this one, but the Giants will win 23-19.
Kilcs: The Giants are ready to implode. Coughlin's antics have been wearing on the team for years and they just don't like to play for the guy and Washington's catching on to the 700 page play book.
Kansas City (-3.5) at Arizona
Point23: Kansas City. With Edge useless, the KC D has a field day with Party Boy (Jackas Two is unreal, by the way). Damon Huard's confidence level is through the roof, too. And How crazy is it that Larry Johnson isn't even my main concern?
Zero: Kansas City. Let’s see, they beat the Niners 41-0. It doesn’t look like Matt Leinart is gonna have a good homecoming. On the other hand, Denny Green tightens the noose around his neck a little more.
Pick 'em Page: KC ranks 2nd in the NFL in pass defense. Long day for Leinhart, but they still keep it close. KC 16-14.
Kilcs: I think Arizona has too much talent to be 3.5 point dogs @ home to the Chiefs who are starting one of the Huard brothers. I think Leinhart plays solid and Fitz has a huge day.
N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (-7.0)
Point23: New York. When Leftwhich learns how to bend his elbow when he throws, maybe I'll pick Jacksonville. I'd pay money to see him throw a fade.
Zero: Jags. I really don’t have anything fun to say about this game other than the fact that both teams wear some shade of green.
Pick 'em Page: Jets offense won't ever get off the ground...Leftwich will throw for 2 scores. Jags 24-13.
Kilcs: Jacksonville is a nasty, physical team. Going up against the yougn Jets O-line, even without Stroud or Wiley, the Jags will be all over Pennington all day and Kevan Barlow, who sucked in SF still sucks.
Oakland at San Francisco (-3.5)
Point23: San Francisco. Here's how bad Oakland is: The Niners just got beat 41-0 by Damon Huard and they are favored by 3.5.
Zero: 49ers. You thought I would pick the Raiders didn’t you? You did. Sucks to be you.
Pick 'em Page: I'd rather watch the Athletics and Giants play two hand touch. A's win 3-2.
Kilcs: Randy joined Jerry's party and doesn't care. Neither does the rest of the team. San Francisco has a bunch of young guys that do care.
Dallas at Philadelphia (-2.0)
Point23: Philly. in a route, too. Donnie Mac has had it up to here with all this TO bullshit, and he's gonna go off. I'm thinkin 4, maybe 5 TDs...easily 300 yards through the air - maybe 400.
Zero: As much as I hate to do this. Cowboys. I have a bad feeling about this. The Eagles are gonna be so geeked to just lay a lick on The Player and get caught up in all the hoopla they they are gonna forget about Terry “Fifth Member of Bone Thugs” Glenn and Drew “Not Ryan Leaf” Bledsoe. I could see Roy Williams decapitating Greg Lewis though.
Pick 'em Page: Eagles will double team Owens, which will open things up for Glenn. Dallas wins on a late field goal, 20-17.
Kilcs: I hate Donovan McNabb (4 tds monday, nobody could tackle him or pussy-footing Greg Lewis?) They haven't beaten anybody all year that's any good and TO and JJ will have good games and Terry, she'll have a good game too. But mainly I just hate Philly.
Pittsburgh at San Diego (-3.5)
Point23: Pittsburgh. The Stees will cover, but they won't win outright. Big Ben and Phil Rivers will keep this one close with TO's against two phenomenal defenses. Time to hit the panic button, Pittsburgh. Sidenote: who has a more embarrassing sack celebration: Merriman's light switch or Larry Foote putting out the cigarette?
Zero: This is even harder for me though. Big Ted likes to play against all those teams that passed over him. Well, this week Phillip Rivers shows why he went to an ACC school and Big Ted did not. The Bolts by a touch. Plus, you know all the Chargers are on that leannnnnnnn.
Pick 'em Page: The champs are coming off a bye and looking at this as a must win. Rivers will be confused early and often with their blitz packages. Steelers 23-16.
Kilcs: SuperBowl champs need a win. Roethlisberger will play better and Cowher's like .750 in primetime games or something pretty crazy. Everybody's counting the Steelers out, but with the strength of their division they know that they have to win and will.I hate Philly.
Baltimore at Denver (-4.0)
Point23: Denver. I hope that was fun last week, Mr. McNair. That Denver D locked up Tom Brady; I'm sure they can concoct some scheme to slow down Steve McNair. Not a blowout, but never really interesting either.
Zero: Ravens stay undefeated on a very, very boring Monday Night game. Can we get one compelling game on Monday night this year. Like a crazy ass shootout or something, which this one obviously won’t be. I hate Ray Lewis, but not as much as Jake Plummer.
Pick 'em Page: Denver has the most underrated defense in the league, only allowing 10.3 ppg. Broncos win this one in a low scoring affair at Mile High, 17-12.
Kilcs: I think MileHigh or Comquest or whatever the hell it's called is a huge home field advantage. Everybody's talking about Ray Lewis (who runs around with murderers, but hated Playmakers) and co. in Baltimore but the best defense in this game is Denver's and Mcnair is out of miracles.
Friday, October 06, 2006
Week Five Picks
In Praise of the Stiff Arm
You know what move I never understood? The stiff arm.
I always wondered why the defender just didn't grab the arm that was being thrown in his face and swing the ball carrier to the ground. I mean, the point is to get as far away from the defenders as possible, right? So why give the guy trying to tackle you something else to grab onto? It just never seemed like the most well-thought out thing in the world. To me, at least.
I think I failed to take a few things into consideration: First, its pretty damn difficult to tackle someone just by the arm. Dudes in the NFL are kinda strong. And it’s not like the arm is just flailing there, like a towel or Troy Polamalu's hair. It’s stiff, remember? Players using the stiff arm positively crush it against thier would-be tackler's facemask. The where-the-hell-did-that-come-from? jolt alone is worth another five yards. Throw in the fact that no one in the NFL can tackle anyways (Seriously. They can't. Everyone either goes for the big hit and misses entirely or just grabs someone and tries to fall over with them. Wrap up!) and its a pretty effective weapon.
I don't know if I wasn't really paying attention before or no one really used it that much or what, but I thought it was about the second dumbest thing to do in football, right behind throwing a fade from the two-yard line. (That play never, ever, ever works, unless you throw it to Randy Moss, Plaxico Burress, Larry Fitzgerald, Chris Chambers...and that's pretty much it. Maybe a few other guys or if you are playing the Giants. Why just throw it up? If your running game can't get it in from the 2 with 4 chances, you're gonna lose anyways, so I guess it really doesn't matter.)
So, Stiff Arm, I'd just like to say welcome back, or welcome to prominence, or just wutup with a man hug, because after week four, its pretty clear you're gonna be around for a while. I can think of three from the last couple of weeks alone that were just absolutely devastating.
Here's the three I could think of, in order of embarrassment for the defender.
That Colts defender wasn't going to stop that TD anyways, but he still got planted. He just got put flat on his back. If Cotchery (out of no where fantasy star, by the way) stiff arms him at the 10, I think he still gets in the end zone. Cotchery didn't even really have to do it. It was kind of a "I'm going to score and watch this!" thing. Ouch.
Getting up after getting stiff armed...there can't be that many more embarrassing things in football, can there? Maybe Plaxico spiking the ball for the Steelers his rookie season when no one touched him. But not much else. I do not envy No. 41 in the film room Tuesday afternoon. You know it's coming, you know everyone is waiting for it, and you just have to sit there in silence waiting for it, while everyone pretends not to laugh. Hurts Sunday, hurts Tuesday.
Still, I don't feel as bad for him as I do for...
...Michael Adams. This hurts on a few levels. First of all, he got stiff armed by Brian Westbrook, who isn't exactly known for his bruising running style. Second, Westbrook didn't even knock him down. He just kept him at arm's length, like
If you’re Adam, why not dive at his legs or something? He didn't even have to tackle him! Westbrook was tiptoeing the sideline - just give him a little shove and it's all over. That was just a pathetic effort. I think I'm more stunned at Adam's sorry attempt than I am impressed with Westbrook's stiff arm. No wonder the Niners gave up 41 points to Damon Huard.
On a personal note: its not like the Niners really had a chance of winning, but whenever someone on your team gets humiliated like that, it still stings. Throw in the fact that my fantasy opponent had Westbrook that week, and I had McNabb, and I ended up losing a nailbiter...that's a dagger. You know if
Fast forward to 5:40. Its worth it. Trust me.
This...this is just absurd. Maroney absolutely annihilates that guy for the Bengals. (I think Chris Henry found himself a drinking buddy for that night.) Not that I've seen that many, but this is the most devestating stiff arm I've ever witnessed (if you've got better ones - or just other ones - I'd love to see them.) He went down like Maroney ducked his shoulder, Earl Campbell style, and run his ass over.
Maroney stiff armed his so hard, the guy does a complete flip. How do explain that one on the sidelines? What's Marvin Lewis even going to say to him? He just has to walk to the sideline, unbuckle his chin strap in disgust and stand there with his hands on his hips in disbelief, like it was some fluke and he can't begin to comprehend how it happened in the first place.
But he's really thinking to himself, "If Maroney becomes a star (which he will), people are going to be watching that highlight 20 years from now, like that time Barry Sanders turned that poor sap from the Patriots around three times. I am really, really screwed for a really, really long time."
That cornerback for the Packers got cut for getting torched; explain to me why this guy shouldn't be cut for getting truck-sticked like he was on a video game? And if you get cut from the Packers' secondary, that's pretty much it, right? I mean, maybe the Patriots will call for some spot duty in late-December when Troy Brown gets fed up, but the career is pretty much in the tank when the Packers tell you that you can't cover someone.
I'm just geeked for the stiff arm moving up the charts on the Random Sports Moments That No One is Expecting But Are Exciting as Hell List. Its right up there with a an outfielder robbing a home run or an alley-oop from half court. As far as I'm concerned, the more stiff arms, the better.
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