XLI: Some Lingering Questions.

First Barbaro, now the Colts. Finally, all beaten-into-the-ground equine-related stories that no one wanted to hear about anyways are finally over. (Although the Colts did fair a little better than Bobby.)

Congrats to the Colts are in order. So: congrats. Now that that's out of the way, there's a few lingering questions, I think.

First up: Does anyone really care that Peyton won? There have been some notable choke artists finally getting off the snide of late: the Red Sox broke the Curse, Mickelson won a major, Roy Williams got a national title an I' sure there are a few I'm forgetting. After the Sawx won, the nation went collectively ballistic and people were positively geeked for Mickelson, even if those two completely annoyed the hell out of everyone in the ensuing aftermath. People were even happy for ol' Roy, even though he basically left Kansas flapping in the wind.

But with Peyton - and consider me firmly entrenched in this camp - I think people are just glad it is over and done with. No one really cared one way or the other, they are just happy it has been eliminated as a point of conversation. Really, do you know anyone who was just thrilled for Manning? Were you? I'm happy for him, I guess, but if he would have lost, I wouldn't have gotten any less sleep.

You know who has to be the most distraught? A-Rod. Now it is just him, fair or not, chilling atop Choke Artist Mountain all by himself. He's got no one for company. Maybe when LeBron gets bounced from the conference finals for the next few seasons, he'll join him. But if you need a punchline for a choke job joke, A-Rod is your go-t0 go, and I can't really think of anyone else.

Next: What if Tony Dungy was an absolute asshole? What if he was more sarcastic and condescending that Bill Parcells, more of a liar than Nick Saban, more arrogant than Brian Billick, more of a winer and complainer than Tom Coughlin, more of an emotionless recluse than Bill Belichik?

Aside from the fact that a coach like that probably never would have gotten his team this far (and would be the worst human being outside of Rae Carruth) it would have set up a pretty interesting situation, I think. By all accounts, Dungy is nothing but class, but what if he wasn't? Large chunks of America (basically everyone outside of Indianapolis) would have been cheering against Tony Dungy becoming for the first black head coach ever to win a Super Bowl, and they would have been absolutely pissed this morning when he actually did become the first black coach ever to do so.

I really don't know what would happen (I'm sure Jay Mariotti's head would explode), but I think it would make for some epic arguments. Is America really still racist? Who knows, but eventually that older black guy with the white beard who appears every single time a race issue is raised would have set us all straight and told us what we should be thinking. Thank goodness we still have that guy. (If you said his name, I'd know it, but I am not Googling him to find out. Frankly, I don't even know what my search would be - "smart black guy white beard race issues"?) When he dies, it is going to be like when the Giver dies.

Finally: Should the Bears bring Grossman back? Well, I think they are going to have to. I mean, Jeff Garcia is the best free agent out there. Unless they make some trade for a veteran (a la Baltimore; but that didn't work out and Kyle Boller's confidence has to be shot) there really aren't any options. Garcia played under the greatest offensive coach in the NFL (seriously, do you know who the Eagles WRs are? And they are always, always in contention. Reid's a genius, I think).

The Bears should stick with Grossman. He got them to a Super Bowl in his first full season. Not too bad, eh? From what I can discern, his biggest weakness seems to be his decision-making; he decides where he is going to throw it before he snaps the ball (incidentally, I do this exact thing on NCAA and Madden, to about the same results). Well, that can be worked on, can't it? If I played more Madden, I would get better at that. If Grossman works more (just try to avoid any New Year's Eve film sessions), he should improve to. And it isn't like he has to be Manning or Brady, he just has to not throw dagger interceptions all game.

The Bears will be better next season. Their D will get two studs back - Tommie Harris, maybe the best at his position in the NFL and Mike Brown, who's really good and always seems to make those "I can't believe that just happened" type plays. Their running game will be better - Benson will improve, so will Thomas Jones. If Grossman just fights his inner-Favre off, there's no reason they can't be back in XLII next year, especially playing in the clearly inferior NFC.

At the very least, Grossman has to be treated like a hot girlfriend who is regularly driving you nuts. Hang on to her just because there are no better options out there, but of a better option does present itself, drop the old one in a hurry and get with little miss new thing ASAP.

And for everyone sayng how boring the Super Bowl was...well, the first quarter was awesome. So there was that.

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Super Bowl XLI...Please, Please Let There Be Some Rain. A Lot of Rain.

I can see all the logical reasons for picking the Colts to win XLI: Peyton Manning, who is 15-5 against a clearly inferior NFC the last three season, is throwing to two Pro Bowl wide receivers with a thousand yard rusher in the backfield and a defense that has been destroying opposing running games throughout the playoffs and coming up with big plays in the secondary. Plus, Manning has had two weeks to dissect game film of every game the Bears have played since the Colts waxed them three years ago. Not to mention the heartwarming story of Peyton finally overcoming his long-time nemesis and then topping it off by finally putting a ring on his finger; Peyton blowing this chance at a glorious coronation would be like the '80 Olympic hockey team upsetting the Russians and then blowing it against Finland.

Sounds pretty convincing, but I'm not sold. For a few reasons.

The Colts do have an explosive offense, but the Bears have a better defense, better special teams and a better running game. They are better in every aspect except for the passing game, and I don't think that the Bears passing game is as bad as every one makes it out to be.

Really, the passing game does some things exceptionally well, like hit the long ball. And I got Grossman's back. I think he's got some serious cajones. He's a play maker. (How can you slurp Brett Favre so hard and completely dismiss Grossman? Just because Favre has three MVPs and Grossman handed in two sub-2.0 passer ratings this season? C'mon!) And I don't think he'd like anything more than to shut up every stupid reporter who's asked him and his teammates and his coaches about pulling him halfway through the game.

Seriously, has that ever happened before? Has a QB who started every game - 18 games! - ever been asked if he was going to get pulled in the Super Bowl? Trent Dilfer perhaps? Maybe Stan Humphries? Has this ever, ever happened? Most sports writers are idiots; disagreeing with them on principle is a fairly intelligent thing to do. I'm going with Grossman out of spite and just because I think he's good, even though he screwed my fantasy team for a crucial two-week stretch and handed in two games with QB ratings under 2.

His counterpart, the immortal Peyton Manning, basically has a ring on his finger already. But I don't trust Peyton on the big stage quite yet. Peyton doesn't strike me as the type of guy who succeeds at something the first time he does it. He fails, works his ass off, fails again, works even harder and then eventually figures everything out and succeeds.

He never beat Florida at Tennessee, but something tells me if he would have had a few more years, he would have found a way to own them. He showed flashes of brilliance early in his career, but it took him a while to master the own-the-game-at-the-line-of-scrimmage routine. It took him forever to get past the Pats but he finally did with a brilliant second half in the AFC title game. Where is the precedent for him ever, ever succeeding the first time around? Peyton will win at least one Super Bowl in his career, but the first time around? I'd be surprised. Not stunned, but surprised.

And it isn't like Peyton is having a stellar post-season either. He was so-so against the Chiefs and then did not play well at all during the Ravens game. No touchdowns. Ed Reed owned him. If the Ravens offense wasn't as slow as the turtles from those Comcast commercials, they would have lost. What is a more realistic representation of the Super Bowl vs. the Bears: going against the Ravens or an old and depleted Pats D? And his first half against the Pats wasn't even anything to write home about either. He did have a career-defining second half, but that's been it. Taken as a whole, he's played poorly the entire post season (Grossman's stats have been much, much better).

Its ironic, I think, that Peyton finally dispatched the Patriots but it is their ghost that can still haunt them.

The AFC title game exposed the Colts' kick covering ability (well, maybe it didn't expose it, per se - I wasn't really paying that close attention to the Colts special teams throughout the season, but it certainly was obvious after that game). Their lackluster tackling and coverage gave the Pats prime field position time and time again; if the Colts cover even one of those kicks mildly adequately, that game isn't nearly as interesting as it ended up being.

The Colts special teams did everything in its power to let the Pats stay in the game and the Pats had the 78-year-old Troy Brown returning kicks. Devin Hester, even if he doesn't break any game-chaning runs, is going to force the Colts to completely alter their kicking game (any direct kick to Hester is a full-blown mistake; this should not happen once). The Bears should own the field position game because they just can't chance kicking it to Hester; he's more than capable of pulling a Desmond Howard. Own field position and then run the ball, and you keep Peyton and the Colts offense off the field for huge stretches of time.

The Pats also showed that the Colts receivers absolutely detest being played physically. The Bears D is going to rough them up and those receivers don't exactly have a history of handling that kind of contact well. I mean, they couldn't find the end zone against the Ravens and the Bears D is better than the Ravens D, at least in my opinion. Throw in the fact that there's a good chance it rains Sunday night - how great would a Super Bowl in the rain be? - and the Bears D has the edge over the Colts O.

And that Colts rushing defense...I mean, yea, they've been lights out in the playoffs, but they sucked - sucked - in the regular season. They were on pace to break the record for most yards allowed per game - ever. They were historically bad. What do you think is a more accurate representation - three games in the playoffs or 16 throughout the course of the regular season? Throw in how long the Super Bowl is - its going to be over four hours; its an absolute grind which just drains players - and that d-line is going to wear down. Even if the Bears don't have success right away, if they stick with it, they will have their way by the end.

So there's a million reasons why the Colts will lose. Why will the Bears win?

The prevailing line of thought seems to be that Grossman has to have himself a ball game for the Bears to win; he can't go out and be the reason the Bears lose. Which is true, I think, but to a degree. I think Sexy can turn it over twice - but just twice - and the Bears can still win, provided those TO's don't come in horrific times or places: run back for scores or in their own territory.

The Bears will run on the Colts. Please believe. They will run and run and run, and then Grossman will hit some big plays down field. The defense will force two, maybe three turnovers - a tipped pass that is picked off, a sack for a fumble, stripping a wide receiver of the ball - and they will capitalize on them. The special teams will make a play or two. And when the Colts get down, they will be done. There will be no comeback against this Bears D like two weeks ago against New England. Did you see Peyton on the sidelines against the Pats? He looked like he was going to throw up; not exactly the stoic picture of confidence.

So: the Bears get up early, run and run, hit a few big, timely plays, Hester and the special teams make a few big plays, and the Chicago D takes advantage of a suddenly one-dimensional, panicking offense. MVP? Thomas Jones.

I said it at the beginning of the season, I'll say it now: Bears 34, Colts 17.

Plus, Merril Hodge took the Colts and I'm pretty sure he is wrong about everything.

(Oh and if the Colts go buck wild and win 42-3, forget I said anything.)

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Told You So.

A couple of days ago, Deadspin mentioned in it's Leftovers section that only one blogger in the entire blogosphere was able to correctly forecast this season's Super Bowl match up: Dan Shanoff was, apparently, the only blogger able to foresee the Bears meeting up with the Colts for XLI. Look, here's the proof.

While props are certainly do to Mr. Shanoff, I, unlike Obie Trice, need to toot my own horn here (because I have to): Back at the beginning of September, I predicted the Bears and Colts would be meeting in Miami. The whole entry is pretty surreal; it was an NFL Preview, and here's how it started:

Before the start of every season in the National Football League, I seem to make one sweet prediction. Granted, that one sweet prediction comes amongst about 30 or 40 inane ones, but I still get that one. So here's 40 or so odd things that most certainly will not pan out, but I guarantee one of these will be a real gem. A diamond in the rough, if you will. Your job is to find it.

That...that is just unreal. The rest of the entry is absurd, of course; it's like one of those commercials on the NFL Network where the guy is like "of course I didn't draft Drew Brees.."

Just listen to some of this stuff: "Everything seems to be falling in line for the Dolphins, doesn't it?" "I will say this: Larry Johnson is overrated! Yea, I said it..." "Shaun Alexander is cracking 2 grand on the ground and gettin 30 TDs. Mark him down. Right now. Do it."

What a train wreck. But at least I warned you going in, and there was that one dead-on prediction: "Super Bowl: Bears 2, Colts 0. Print it." I don't have any other reason for brining this to your attention other than my own ego gratification (I didn't even remember I made this prediction until I saw that Shanoff was the only one who got it right, wondered who I had picked, and looked it up).

So, yea. I was right.

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